Back on March 28th, I wrote an article featuring nine Major League hurlers who should be in Cooperstown (if you're interested in that post, click on this link and read more). Today, we turn our attention to offensive players, selecting nine worthy candidates who should be inducted into the sport's Hall of Fame, but were not for reasons we will explore. Before I continue, it is important to note that no players on the current ballot for 2021 are discussed. This includes names liked Barry Bonds, Scott Rolen and Gary Sheffield. We must also mention that this is Part One. With the bevy of offensive talent in the history of the game, I needed two articles for the analysis. Part Two will come soon!
How will candidacy be evaluated? Through statistical achievements, relative to their peers at that time, and through historical contexts, whether that be through individual accolades or team accomplishments. Now that we have set the rules, here are my nine hitters who should definitively be in the Hall of Fame.
1. Roger Maris (1957-1968)
While his career only lasted all of 12 seasons, missing parts of years here and there, Maris was still one of the most effective bats in the history of baseball. He's obviously famous for his 1961 campaign where he set the record for most homers hit in a season at 61. But what fans need to understand is that by some metrics, he was a Top-20 to-30 offensive player, specifically in the 1960's.
Having hit the 15th most homers in the decade (217), he was a highly touted power bat in a lineup that featured Mickey Mantle and Elston Howard. He finished the decade tied for 9th and 15th in ISO (0.228) and wOBA (0.370) respectfully. He started the 60's with back-to-back MVP awards (1960, 1961) and accumulated six All-Star selections and three World Series rings (two with NYY and one with STL). In just a short stretch of time, Roger Maris dominated the game and deserves Cooperstown consideration.
Now, I understand that he missed significant playing time in his career, providing inconsistency. He also was not a statistical compiler either, and one would argue that if you remove 1961 from his resume, his entire Major League tenure would be uninspiring.
My response would be this: look deeper. When you're on a team with Mickey Mantle and Yogi Berra, you tend to get lost in the shuffle unless you do something historically ridiculous (i.e. his 1961 season). And yes, he does not have +1,000 RBI or +300 HR, but he did crush 275 moonshots and had 652 BB to 733 SO. In other words, the production at the plate was solid.
Also, he did not play in the 1969 season. I'm not saying he would have set the world on fire that year, but who knows? Maybe he hits 25 dingers and is still a preeminent power-bat? Then I think the conversation changes.
2. Pete Rose (1963-1986)
Let me give you the resume of Former Player X:
PLAYER X'S CAREER RESUME:
17 All-Star Selections
3-time World Series Winner
World Series MVP Winner
League MVP Winner
3 Batting Titles
Rookie of the Year Winner
2 Gold Gloves
1 Silver Slugger
No doubt in my mind that if any batter takes home this type of hardware, he's a slam dunk Cooperstown candidate, and any baseball fan worth their salt would agree. Now change "Player X" with "Pete Rose" and people start to balk at those accomplishments.
We can talk about the obvious with Pete Rose, but I don't want to talk about the obvious. I want to talk about the production. Because by all accounts, it was prolific and historic.
In a career that spanned 24 seasons, Rose accumulated the most hits in Major League history (4,256) and ranks 2nd all-time in doubles (746). As one of the signature players on the Cincinnati Reds' "Big Red Machine" teams in the 1970's, he helped propel the franchise to back-to-back World Series championships in 1975 (won the series MVP award) and 1976, along with four total appearances in the Fall Classic overall.
Amongst hitters who had at least 3,500 plate appearances in the 1970's, Rose ranked 1st in wRC (1,101) and 6th in BABIP (0.327). He was the quintessential complete offensive player for his era. While there is contention with his candidacy, for my money, Pete Rose should be inducted into Cooperstown.
3. Steve Garvey (1969-1987)
The story of Steve Garvey is a fascinating one, and maybe the most fascinating on this list. He's not going to have any 'Wow-Factor" statistically, as he never led the league in any major metric or statistic, outside of hits (1978, 1980). But he was consistent and he was always going to contribute to his team's success.
Starting in 1973, when he became a full time starter with the Dodgers, he played 100-plus games every singe year until 1986. In that time, he ranks 2nd in games played with 2,091 (only Mike Schmidt had more at 2,094). In a 19-year tenure that spanned two teams, Garvey's production came mostly wearing Dodger blue, as he accrued eight of his ten All-Star appearances with the franchise, along with an NL MVP award in 1974 and four trips to the World Series (1974, 1977, 1978, 1981) culminating with a ring in 1981. The two-time NLCS MVP winner was also one of the key focal points of a team that was a well-oiled machine that included Dusty Baker and Ron Cey.
While one could argue that he was a statistical compiler and his numbers are hollow, the opposite view is that Steve Garvey's output was a driving force to both the success of Los Angeles and San Diego at that time. This also includes his postseason prowess, as he posted a cumulative slash line of 0.356/0.383/0.678, an OPS of 1.061 and a Win Probability Added (WPA) of 1.58.
My theory as to why Garvey is overlooked is based mainly in his lack of league dominance from a statistical perspective. The postseason accomplishments and accolades are there, but he never took the league over in any advanced way. However, he was durable and a majority of his career was not plagued by injury. Overall, Steve Garvey should have a Hall of Fame plaque
4. Fred Lynn (1974-1990)
A career that spanned 17 seasons, Lynn's most productive seasons came in the first ten years, starting with his rookie season in 1975. That year, he captured AL Rookie of the Year and AL MVP honors all while helping Boston reach the World Series. From 1974 to 1983, Lynn would also collect nine All-Star selections, a Batting Title, four Gold Gloves, and an ALCS MVP. Needless to say, Lynn was a tremendous offensive force in centerfield.
Analytically, he was one of the better hitters in baseball, as his wOBA (0.387) and wRC+ (137) in the first ten years of his career ranked 4th and T-7th respectfully amongst batters with a minimum of 3,500 plate appearances. It's pretty clear that Lynn had one of the greatest decade long runs at the dish in the history of the Majors. So, why isn't he in the Hall of Fame?
I mentioned earlier that he played 17 seasons. While the first ten were spectacular, the last seven were highly inconsistent, and some remember him more for those years.
I am referencing the span of his career from 1984 to 1990. In that time, Lynn played for four teams (California, Baltimore, Detroit and San Diego) and his wOBA and wRC+ decreased dramatically to 0.349 and 117 respectfully. Ultimately, he became a serviceable player in this time frame, which is the lasting thought most voters have of him. It's similar to that of Fernando Valenzuela, where the first decade of his career is interstellar and the final six to seven are average at best.
For me, Fred Lynn is a Hall of Famer. He has the hardware, the numbers and the pedigree that matches up well with other players in his position group.
5. Keith Hernandez (1974-1990)
Keith Hernandez was one of the more underrated first basemen for both his career and in the 1980's. Even before the decade began, he had won NL MVP honors in 1979, where he secured a Batting Title and led the league in doubles (48) and runs (116). He would also win his second Gold Glove award and 11 for his career, the most by any first basemen.
The five-time All-Star was a key piece in two World Series winners with the St. Louis Cardinals in 1982 and the New York Mets in 1986, as he was highly skilled offensively. Amongst first basemen in the 80's with at least 500 plate appearances, Hernandez ranks 5th in BABIP (0.325), 8th in wOBA (0.368) and T-8th in wRC+ (134) amongst a sample of 100 eligible players.
This might be the shortest breakdown of the whole article because it's pretty clear. We're talking about a two-time champion with several accolades and was highly effective, both offensively and defensively, relative to his position group for the prime of his career. To me, that's a Hall of Fame caliber player.
6. Dale Murphy (1976-1993)
Anytime a player wins multiple MVP awards in a professional sport, they need to be discussed for that respective sport's Hall of Fame. Dale Murphy might be the quietest two-time MVP winner in the history of baseball and his power-hitting skills are severely underrated. For the entirety of the 1980's, only one player hit more moonshots than the 308 that Murphy crushed (Mike Schmidt, 313). As I mentioned, he won two MVP awards in back-to-back fashion (1982, 1983) and has led the league in different seasons in home runs, walks, slugging, OPS and runs.
One of the better slugging outfielders in the 1980's, he finished the decade T-8th with an ISO of 0.218 and T-10th in wRC+ (130) amongst outfielders with at least 2,000 plate appearances. He also garnered seven All-Star selections, five Gold Gloves and four Silver Sluggers. While some will point to the lack of postseason success in his 18-year career (his only appearance came in 1982), I argue that Murphy gets looked over due to the fact he played in a market that provided little attention to his capabilities as a player. Spending more than 14 seasons in Atlanta, the media attention might have been minimal in his tenure.
When a player has better power metrics than Andre Dawson (HOFer) and Reggie Jackson (HOFer), then there should be some deeper analysis that needs to take place to determine said player's Cooperstown eligibility. Dale Murphy falls in that category.
7. Lou Whitaker (1977-1995)
For a near two decade long stretch, one would be hard pressed to find a second basemen better than Lou Whitaker. For this analysis, I am going to adjust my evaluation methods slightly. Instead, I am going to look at his body of work over his 19 years in the Majors, relative to others at his position in the same timeframe. Aside from his accolades (five All-Star selections, four Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, a Rookie of the Year award and a ring in 1984), Whitaker was the prototypical hitter that every team should want at second base.
From 1977 to 1995, he ranks 2nd in home runs hit at 244, only Ryne Sandberg has more at 245. He is T-4th in wOBA (0.353) with Craig Biggio and Roberto Alomar and is also T-4th in wRC+ (118) with Ryne Sandberg and Roberto Alomar. For this metric specifically, Joe Morgan and Craig Biggio rank higher at 122 each. Why do I bring up these names? Sandberg, Biggio, Alomar and Morgan are all in the Hall of Fame; Whitaker is not. Interesting wouldn't you say?
It is beyond me why Lou Whitaker is not in Cooperstown as of this writing. His advanced metrics and his accomplishments speak for themselves.
8. Fred McGriff (1986-2004)
While Whitaker was a head scratcher, the case of Fred McGriff is equally as baffling. His tenth and final year of eligibility on the ballot passed in 2019 and he never garnered more than 75% of total votes needed for a spot in Cooperstown. When you dive deeper into his career, it becomes clear that he is in fact, a Hall of Fame player.
Maybe it was because of the era he played in, or that he played for six franchises in 19 years. Regardless, his output in that time cannot be ignored. With 493 career homers, one could argue that he powered the Atlanta Braves to a World Series victory in 1995, as his SLG% was 0.600 or better in each round of the playoffs that year.
Amongst first basemen with 400 appearances at the dish in the 90's, McGriff finished 8th in wOBA (0.386) and T-5th in wRC+ (136). He is also one of five players in this period to have a wRC over 1,000 (Thomas, Palmeiro, Bagwell and McGwire are the others). So, we have awards, ridiculous volume numbers and tremendous positional value. Why Fred McGriff is not in the Hall, the world may never know.
9. Albert Belle (1989-2000)
Everywhere Albert Belle went, offensive production followed, plain and simple. He became a fixture in a Cleveland lineup that featured others of his caliber, including Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez. With his contributions, he helped the franchise end it's four-decade long postseason drought at the time, reaching the Fall Classic in 1995.
When he became a full-time starter in the outfield in 1991, Belle never hit less than 20 homers for the remaining decade of his MLB tenure. He literally left a dent in the 1990's with 351 dingers and ranks favorably amongst qualified hitters in both wOBA (0.406) and wRC+ (145) in that period.
Amongst fellow outfielders, his raw power ranks favorably, as his ISO of 0.282 is good for 2nd in the decade amongst the position group. A five-time All-Star, Belle's 1995 season was especially prolific, leading the league in doubles (52), home runs (50), slugging (0.690) and total bases (377). He would go on to win ML Player of the Year and one of five career Silver Sluggers.
Now, why doesn't Albert Belle garner more Hall of Fame attention? I believe it is a combination of the era and markets he played in along with the "Johan Santana Effect." What do I mean by that? Santana played 12 seasons and was prolific, winning multiple Cy Young awards as one of the best arms in the game in his time. For Belle, his career also lasted 12 seasons, so detractors could argue that he didn't play long enough to justify his candidacy.
While I can't speak for his critics, Albert Belle belongs in Cooperstown, based on his statistical achievements and the offensive force that he was.
Now remember, this is only Part One. By my count, there are other hitters in the history of the game who belong in Cooperstown. Part Two will be out soon!
Thank you so much for choosing The Launch Angle for some out-of-the-box baseball analysis! If you liked this post, click on this link for our previous article.
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