This evening, Major League Baseball will announce the NL and AL Cy Young award winners and will reveal the NL and AL MVP winners tomorrow. To refresh your memory, here is the complete list of finalists below:
AL Cy Young Finalists
Shane Bieber (CLE)
Kenta Maeda (MIN)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (TOR)
AL MVP Finalists
José Abreu (CHW)
DJ LeMahieu (NYY)
José Ramírez (CLE)
NL Cy Young Finalists
Trevor Bauer (CIN)
Jacob deGrom (NYM)
Yu Darvish (CHC)
NL MVP Finalists
Mookie Betts (LAD)
Freddie Freeman (ATL)
Manny Machado (SDP)
We offer our predictions for each award by providing a decisive, data-driven analysis and pick a winner for each award. Now that we've set the table, let's dive in, starting with the American League.
AL Winners
AL Cy Young: Shane Bieber
Amongst the finalists for this award, Bieber was the most dominant from beginning to end. Amongst the finalists, he pitched the most innings (77.1) and led baseball in ERA (1.63), FIP (2.07) and SO/9 (14.2). While some will point to a high BB/9 (2.44) and an average SO/BB ratio (5.81), Bieber had the lowest BAA, relative to Ryu and Maeda at 0.167.
Having finished fourth in the Cy Young voting last year, Bieber has gradually improved since entering the league in 2018 and projects to be a dominant arm in Cleveland's rotation for years to come. But in the context of this shortened 2020 season, Bieber should capture his first career Cy Young and it's not even close.
AL MVP: DJ LeMahieu
While voters will argue that LeMahieu played the fewest games of the finalists, when he was in the lineup for the Bronx Bombers, sensational offense was the result. Winning the Batting Title for the second time in his career and is the first batter in the modern era to win the award in both the NL and AL.
A tremendous asset in the batter's box, he led the league in batting average (0.364), on-base percentage (0.421) and OPS (1.011). When comparing his output to that of Abreu and Ramírez, he had a better BABIP (0.370) and wOBA (0.429). Though his power numbers are not in the same level of the other finalists, LeMahieu is not a power-hitter and is not fixated on mashing homers. While fans and analysts will focus on the long-ball and advanced power metrics, we must appreciate LeMahieu's patience at the plate coupled with his ability to effectively put the ball in play and reach base.
While his sample size is lower than Abreu and Ramírez, there is no reason to believe that his metrics would decline when given an additional 40 to 50 plate appearances. Therefore, DJ LeMahieu should be the 2020 AL MVP winner.
NL Cy Young: Yu Darvish
Of the four awards, the race for the NL Cy Young is the closest. Here is why Darvish should win the award over Bauer and deGrom: of the three, he excelled in preventing negative outcomes over the largest sample coupled with exemplary strikeout production that mirrored that of the other hurlers in this conversation.
Of the finalists, Davish faced the most batters (297) over the most innings (76.0). He led the Majors in FIP (2,23), which measures an arm's ability to prevent negative outcomes and generate outs. Amongst this exemplary group, Darvish had the lowest BB/9 (1.66) and HR/9 (0.59) and the highest SO/BB ratio (6.64). This was all while striking out hitters at a 31.3% clip, which is close to that of both Bauer (36%) and deGrom (38.8%).
Given where Darvish's career was heading into 2020, he was on the decline, both in statistical production and ability. This is supplemented by his durability issues. In spite of all that, he had a "Cinderella" type season and finally looked like the ace that the Cubs paid upwards of $120 million for. Therefore, Yu Darvish should win this award, which would be his first.
NL MVP: Freddie Freeman
As close as the race for the NL Cy Young is, the NL MVP, in my opinion, is an overwhelming blowout in favor of Freddie Freeman. In every single offensive metric, he was markedly more prolific than either Mookie Betts or Manny Machado, whether that be BB% (17.2%), OPS (1.102), ISO (0.299), BABIP (0.366) or wOBA (0.456). This was all done over the most plate appearances of the three at 262.
Freeman's offensive output at the dish prominently stood out, particularly on a Braves roster that included individual juggernauts Marcell Ozuna and Ronald Acuna Jr. Betts and Machado could not touch what he accomplished at the plate and Freddie Freeman should be the runaway favorite.
One Caveat
With that said, I am going to add one caveat here: Juan Soto should have been a finalist for this award and would have likely won it if he was. I understand that he missed 13 games, therefore his sample size is lower, relative to the actual finalists. With that said, he led baseball in batting average (0.351), OBP% (0.490), SLG% (0.695) and OPS (1.185). Regarding his standing in the National League, he led EVERY single qualified batter in EVERY single analytical measure. It is ridiculous that he is not a finalist for this award.
Thank you so much for choosing The Launch Angle for some out-of-the-box baseball analysis! If you liked this post, click on this link for our previous article.
Comments