After reading this headline, one might be thinking "Wow, thank you so much Captain Obvious. Like we didn't know this before."
It would be understandable, but do me a favor: just sit down for ten minutes as we go deeper into the benefits of hitting for extra bases. We could easily draw some formal correlation between slugging percentage and on-base percentage and call it a day. But that would be too easy. Instead, we focus on more in-depth metrics that provide stronger insights into a hitter's development at the plate.
The focus of this piece is Isolated Power, or ISO. Essentially, it is a measure of raw power for a position player. If they have a mark of 0.120, there power is very good. If it is 0.140 or higher, they possess elite levels of raw strength. Today, we draw a correlation between ISO, Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) and Expected Weighted On-Base Average Contact (xwOBAcon).
Both these statistics are based on quality of contact for hitters. xwOBA is a measure of a batter's skill and is primarily formulated using exit velocity and launch angle. Where wOBA accounts for all factors for a hitter to reach base, xwOBA bases it on generated contact. xwOBAcon is a different derivation, as it excludes walks and hit-by-pitches and focuses only on contact only.
As mentioned above, we want to determine any viable connection between the two metrics discussed above and ISO. To accomplish this goal, we draw on a sample of batters who had at least 500 plate appearances in 2019 and ranked in the the Top-100 in ISO. With our sample, we run regression analysis to look for any reliable correlation.
Now that we've set the table, let's eat.
xwOBA and ISO
In this breakdown, we simply look to see if raw strength benefits hitters in getting on-base in a myriad of ways based on their contact. In accordance to Figure One below, there is some correlation that can be drawn:
With an r-squared of 0.4149, it is logical to conclude that a batter's estimated raw power can assist in their efforts to reach base when they connect with opposing pitches or when they reach first base in other ways, aside from hitting. What is even more fascinating are the results from the xwOBAcon analysis.
xwOBAcon and ISO
Based on Figure Two below, the correlation between xwOBAcon and ISO is not as strong as the one previously discussed, but it is still statistically significant:
Here is what is most interesting. Knowing what xwOBAcon accounts for, one would initially have thought that it would correlate stronger to ISO. With an r-squared of 0.3302 and in the context of the first regression, it does not. While the correlation is still moderately strong, when looking to see if raw power correlates to the outcomes that xwOBAcon focuses on, there are other variables that must be analyzed for deeper understanding.
Conclusion
Overall, we are advising coaches to stress to hitters a program and regimen that focuses on building strength. Citing the analyses above, if a position player increases their respective levels of raw power, their production based on contact, will ultimately increase. This will benefit their offensive output but also increase the probability of their team's success.
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