While we are in the midst of the Statcast era, where home runs and player development are the central focus of modern-thinking baseball organizations, we forget one crucial component of offense that is still relevant: the walk.
Every baseball analyst and advisor should always remind decision-makers that while hitting moonshots that don't land are an effective method of generating offense, being patient at the plate and drawing walks is still viable. Over a week ago, we focused on Gross Production Average (GPA) as an effective statistical measure to quantify a batter's total contributions in the batter's box. As a shameless plug, click on this link to get to that breakdown if you're interested.
On-Base Percentage (OBP%) is a crucial component in calculating this metric, as reaching base in a myriad of ways is necessary. For the purposes of this article, we focus on solely drawing walks, in the form of Walk Rate (BB%) and correlate it to a player's overall offensive output, represented by GPA.
To accomplish this analysis, we draw a sample of position players from the Statcast era (2015 to 2019) who had at least 2,000 plate appearances over the last five seasons. This will allow us to have some depth in the respective statistics within our group of hitters for this study. From there, we create a regression analysis to discern any reputable correlation between GPA and BB%.
Now that we have set the table, let's eat.
The Analysis
To reference the title of this post, the walk is still invaluable. Whether we like to admit it or not, there is still value in plate discipline. Based on the graph from Figure One below, there is statistical significance in increased GPA and generating walks:
With an r-squared of 0.3678, there is a strong correlation between GPA and increases in BB%. While there is a strong emphasis on power-hitting, being able to reach base in other ways, specifically with pitch recognition and patience, is still critical to a batter's success. While exit velocities and launch angles are crucial to help players become better, being able to recognize pitches that you should not hit and reach base if you avoid swinging at four of them, is still advantageous to a team's run scoring capabilities.
The Conclusion
While baseball players should seek to develop their swings and improve how they draw contact with opposing pitches, they should also focus on their pitch recognition. In the context of GPA, extra base hits is not the only measure that it accounts for. Being able to reach first base, via the walk, is still an invaluable method of efficient offensive production.
Thank you so much for choosing The Launch Angle for some out-of-the-box baseball analysis! if you liked this article, click on this link for our previous post.
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