Sounds impossible right? The idea of building the pitching cypher to break the strikeout code seems almost impossible. Well we have, to a degree.
On this lovely Monday morning, we attempt to build a four pitch mix that starting pitchers should rely upon to generate strikeouts and ultimately a high strikeout rate (SO%). To accomplish this feat, we draw on a sample of starters who pitched at least 100 innings in 2019. We then narrow it down to those with the top-100 SO%.
From there, we breakdown each hurler’s first, second, third and fourth pitch based on usage. By breaking down pitch usage for each sequence, we offer a method for frontline arms to be more successful in creating punch-outs.
It is important to note that we are breaking down specifics on spin rate and location. Nor did we account for how many pitches it takes to create a strikeout. We are merely focusing on a four pitch mix that can be cycled through repeatedly until a batter is called out at home plate.
From there, we breakdown each hurler’s first, second, third and fourth pitch based on usage. By breaking down pitch usage for each sequence, we offer a method for frontline arms to be more successful..
Now that we’ve set the table, let’s eat.
First Pitch: Four-Seam Fastball
There is really no surprise here. As shown in the chart below, 70% of starters in this analysis use a four-seam fastball as their pitch and don’t really rely on any other pitch types for their initial offering. The next highest percentage of 13% belongs to those who choose sinkers.
Second Pitch: Slider
After a fastball, starters tend to use a breaking pitch to trick hitters. That choice, based on this sample, is a slider:
Approximately one-third of starters in this study favor this pitch type. While some might prefer a changeup, the majority want to use sliders to provide a level of deception after a heater.
Third Pitch: Changeup or Slider
For the third pitch selection, we have some choice:
According to our results, 21% of our sample either choose a changeup or a slider as their tertiary selection. While some might question these options, they are logically sound. After a four-seam fastball and slider, offensive players might be expecting the same pitch for their third offering.
If a hurler has an effective slider and trusts it, they should default to it. If they wish to add some variation, a changeup is recommended.
Fourth Pitch: Curveball
For the final variable in our strikeout equation, we recommend a curveball:
While 34% of arms in this breakdown choose this pitch, one could make the case for a changeup (27%) or a sinker (20%). However, the more a pitcher can trick an offensive player and strike them out with a pitch that they weren't expecting, the more effective they will be in the long-term. By using four unique pitch options, upper-echelon starters can elevate their production.
Conclusion
Amongst starting pitchers who pitched at least 100 innings and had a SO% that was in the top-100 of this sample, we can formally create two pitch sequences that consists of four pitches with the goal of generating strikeouts at an efficient rate:
Sequence One: Four-Seamer, Slider, Changeup, Curveball
Sequence Two: Four-Seamer, Slider, Slider, Curveball
With these two options, we hope that starters will be able to generate more strikeouts and boost their overall SO% over the course of a season.
Thank you so much for choosing The Launch Angle for some out-of-the-box baseball analysis! If you liked this post, click on this link for our previous article.
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