This article is a continuation of a previous post, entitled "A Three Pitch That Generates Groundballs," where data provided a breakdown of a three-pitch sequence that would help starting pitchers create grounders that could be turned for outs by the defense behind them.
We continue upon the importance of the groundball and how it can be highly beneficial for starters, especially when their strikeout stuff is either not working or still in development.
Today, we focus on how they impact both the ERA and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of hurlers. For this breakdown, a sample of starters who pitched a minimum of 10 innings during the shortened-2020 season was compiled. This totals 197 qualified arms. Their respective ERA and FIP will then be correlated to their respective GroundBall% (GB%). Through this regression analysis, a formal correlation will be drawn to determine how GB% impacts these measures.
Now that we've set the table, let's eat.
If there are pitchers out there who think that generating grounders at a consistent percentage is useless or not worth it, an argument can be made for the opposite. While everyone agrees that strikeouts of opposing batters is the goal, the alternative to frustrate them into hitting groundballs is viable.
As shown in the figures below, there is a fascinating conclusion that can be drawn:
With correlation coefficients of 0.1166 and 0.1347, the level of statistical significance is low. While some upon reading that last sentence would then summarily dismiss this article, remember, there are other components that contribute to a low ERA and FIP. For ERA, it's about limiting earned runs over an elongated amount of innings. For FIP, there are at least four variables that a pitcher would like to have in their favor that would contribute to a final calculation that is effective. Creating grounders is only a small part of that contribution for each.
With that said, notice that the correlation is a negative one. In other words, the higher the groundball rate that a starting pitcher has, the better the probability of a low ERA and FIP. This of course is logical, as they may be turned for an out or multiple outs in an inning over a standard nine-inning contest.
With this analysis, the goal is to conclude how inducing grounders as a starter, especially if its against great lineups, can help bolster your performance and can be an effective route to help your team win.
Thank you so much for choosing The Launch Angle for some out-of-the-box baseball analysis! If you liked this post, click on this link for our previous article.
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