With the Major League season at a close and free agency looming, it is an opportunity for franchises to acquire talented, well-established players with the goal of making their roster better for 2021. For me personally, I always gravitate towards pitching, for three reasons.
The first being that great pitching always beats great hitting, especially in October. Second, I tend to believe that great staffs are able to get teams through long-stretches in a standard 162-game season. Third, depth in a rotation is always welcome, especially as teams switch to a more bullpen-heavy approach. While organizations may focus on maximizing their lineup for run-production purposes, others will acquire premium pitching to counteract any potent offenses.
Here is how we are going to approach this exercise. We will play the role of a front office executive whose entire starting staff was lost in free agency, trades etc. We will also look towards the free market to replenish the pitching core using the 2020 class. Regarding what we are looking for, we want to focus on variety, in the context of both that player's skillsets relative to each rotation spot and expected affordability. It is also important to note that we are only evaluating players who opted-in last year, versus those who did not play due to COVID-19.
Now that we have defined the parameters, let's dive in.
No. 1 Starter: Trevor Bauer
While one could make the argument that Bauer has been inconsistent in his career, that would not be the case in 2020. A finalist for the NL Cy Young award, he relied on a four-pitch mix that catapulted him into the elite ranks of the game. His arsenal included a four-seam fastball (40.9%), cutter (19.7%), slider (16.5%) and curveball (15.7%). While we could spend this section breaking down every component of each of his pitches, let's focus on his movement, which was just ridiculous.
Amongst qualified pitchers, Bauer's four-seam and curveball vertical movement was 3.9 inches and 11 inches better than league average, ranking first in baseball. His slider's horizontal movement was 8.8 inches better than average, which finished in the top-five. While some may argue that Bauer might be a long-term risk financially, a case could be made that the market will be depressed this offseason due to the pandemic. Operating under this assumption, we believe that he will receive a short-term contract with more money upfront.
According to our Player Prediction Model (PPM), any team looking to sign Trevor Bauer should offer a four-year contract worth approximately $91 million.
No. 2 Starter: Michael Wacha
I understand that Wacha had a rough season last year with the New York Mets, as his rate statistics across the board were subpar. With that said, there was one component of Wacha's game where he excelled: his secondary pitches.
According to Baseball Savant, Wacha threw 178 changeups in 2020. On those pitches he registered a Whiff% and PutAway% of 40.8% and 32.9% respectfully. Across the board, opposing batters could not generate quality contact, as shown in an xBA, xSLG and xwOBA of 0.198, 0.367 and 0.243 respectfully. His cutter was also highly effective, as he posted a Whiff% and PutAway% of 18.3% and 14.3% respectfully.
Where we are going with this is that Wacha needs to rely on these pitches more often than he does, especially in a league where the home run is prevalent. While he will be 29 years of age in 2021 and has shown that he can be an All-Star and a reliable arm, any front office should take the risk of signing him for the right price.
According to the PPM, that right price is a one-year "prove it" deal worth around $625,000.
No. 3 Starter: Taijuan Walker
Walker is a pure "upside" signing, plain and simple. Between 11 starts with Seattle and Toronto last season, he registered a steady RA/9 of 3.90 while posting a SO/9 of 8.4. What was even more impressive was his ability to limit hits, reflected in a BAA of 0.213 and a BABIP of 0.243.
A career that spans eight years with three different franchises, his usage rate is rather low, as he has pitched the seventh-fewest innings amongst starters in baseball (min. 550 IP) since 2013. With that in mind, scouts and executives should seriously consider Walker as a viable option for a starting rotation, particularly if their goal is to limit spending. Based on the PPM, he should receive a three-year deal, with the final year being a team-option, for a combined contract value of potentially $11.865 million.
No. 4 Starter: Rick Porcello
Another former Met starter that got shelled last year, the former Cy Young winner looks for a new home and a bounce back season in 2021.
Admittedly, this signing is a little bit of a gamble, as Porcello looks like he's starting the back-nine of his baseball career. WHile this might be the case, there are two data points that indicate he can still be effective. The first is his FIP of 3.33. While his ERA was north of 5.00, a FIP of this level indicates to me that Porcello generated outs and limited negative outcomes. It also tells me that the Mets defense was subpar and did him no favors. The second measure was his HR/9 of 0.76, which was better than that of Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer and Hyun-Jin Ryu who are all Cy Young finalists.
A front office should not ask Rick Porcello to be an ace, or a top-tier starter, those days are behind him. But can he be at least serviceable, especially when there is still uncertainty for the 2021 season? Absolutely. Despite what we outlined above, the PPm suggest that a team should give Porcello a one-year deal at the veteran's minimum, which is around $500,000.
No. 5 Starter: Rich Hill
That's right, soon-to-be 41-year old Rich Hill is our team's final signing in this exercise. Having played for nine franchises in his 16 seasons in the Majors, Hill is aging like a fine wine. In eight starts with Minnesota in 2020, he registered a serviceable RA/9 of 3.03 and brought stability to a productive pitching rotation that included Cy Young finalist Kenta Maeda.
Where Hill is truly valuable is his spin rates, as he is right alongside Charlie Morton for the title of "Spin King." In both fastball and curveball spin, Rich Hill finished in the 74th and 87th percentile respectfully. When a pitcher in his early-40's is generating rpm levels that high, he is worth a contract.
Upon further analysis of his curveball, it might be one of the best of its type in the game. With a spin rate of 2,849 rpm, hitters could not touch it, registering an xBA, xSLG and xwOBA of 0.233, 0.333 and 0.292 respectfully. Again, Hill is almost 41 years young.
Having him as a fifth starter in a standard five man starting rotation is ideal. He might even compete for the fourth or third spot, depending on both his output and the output of other hurlers. Being mindful of his age, a club should offer Rich Hill a two-year contract, with the second year being a team option, for a potential total value of $13.5 million.
Let's Review
Overall, our starting rotation heading into 2021 is as follows:
1. Trevor Bauer
2. Michael Wacha
3. Taijuan Walker
4. Rick Porcello
5. Rich Hill
By our market projections, along with each respective player's abilities, this staff provides security and affordability heading into a 2021 season with a myriad of unknowns.
Thank you so much for choosing The Launch Angle for some out-of-the-box baseball analysis! If you liked this post, click on this link for our previous article.
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