Here is a bold statement: the stolen base does not matter in a team's success. Let us go one step further: to win World Series, it REALLY does not matter. This may seem like a strong statement, but in fact it is true.
While some may argue that stealing a critical base places a runner in scoring position, building an offense that is stolen base focused is a flawed methodology, particularly if the goal is to win a championship. We look back at the last 20 World Series champions and their respected wSB and BsR for those seasons as primary evidence to our claim.
For context, wSB is Weighted Stolen Base Runs, which estimates the number of runs a player contributes by stealing bases, relative to the average player. A value above zero would indicate that the player has contributed more runs than the average player if they had the same number of opportunities; a value below zero would indicate fewer runs were contributed, relative to the average player.
In accordance with Figure One, of the last 20 champions, 11 teams had wSB below zero and 15 squads had a collective wSB below five runs. The team with the highest wSB on this list is the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies, which featured Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino who combined for 83 stolen bases that season. It is also important to note that of the champions from 2000 to 2006, only one (2002 Anaheim Angels) had a wSB greater than zero. While some may argue that the last two World Series winners had positive wSB and every team is constructed differently, the wSB for each is not consistent on a year-to-year basis.
Now let us move to BsR, or Base Running. It is an all-encompassing stat created by Fangraphs that turns all base running plays into runs above and below average. It also includes wSB into its calculation, which we mention for reasons for which we discuss later. In reference to Figure Two below, 10 of the last 20 champions had a BsR below zero, meaning that all their respective base running plays negatively contributed to run scoring. The team with the highest BsR on this list is that same team that had the highest wSB, the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies.
Let us get back to wSB for a second. As mentioned above, it is part of the BsR calculation. Notice that some of the World Series teams had a negative wSB but had a positive BsR. For example, the 2016 Chicago Cubs had a wSB of -4.3, but had a BsR of 17.3. This shows that other base running plays were more impactful in run production than stealing bases. This was also the case for the 2003 Florida Marlins, the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals and the 2014 San Francisco Giants.
If a team is seeking to win a World Series in upcoming seasons, they do not necessarily have to focus their attention on base stealing or base running. While some World Series champions have been effective at both, others have not. Thus proving our thesis that baserunning doesn't win championships.
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