We are now in a new era of baseball, one that has supplanted the analytics revolution. We now reside in the times of Player Development, where data is used to make players better. Whether it be their swings or pitch arsenals, numbers are now employed to build better hitters and pitchers.
Today, we attempt to build the perfect hitter. While this may seem difficult at first glance, as there maybe elements of an offensive player that are not easily discernable (as all swings are not created equal), we focus on five main traits: Batting Eye, Bat Speed, Durability, Power Hitting and Swing Mechanics.
Here are the rules:
1. For each category, we will select a player who is either currently, or was previously, playing in Major League Baseball.
2. We will use a combination of advanced metrics, player development data, and scouting analyses to breakdown each individual player.
3. We will also compare each player to their contemporaries in the context of advanced data.
Batting Eye: Joey Votto
It would be almost irresponsible if Joey Votto was not selected for this category. As he is entering his age 36 season, he is still the preeminent on-base machines the game has today. While some say that Votto's production has dipped in recent seasons, his ability to reach base in a multitude of ways is still invaluable, as referenced in Figure One:
In the last decade, both Votto's wOBA and BB% fell below 0.400 and 16.0% only three times in the 2010’s which is a testament to his pitch recognition. Votto's ability to identify pitches on the outer parts of the strike zone as a left-handed hitter is still elite, as shown in Figure Two. According to Baseball Savant, Votto's BB% was at its highest at the top left (44%) and bottom right (40%) on the outside of the strike zone in 2019. So, we have a hitter who is perceivably declining, but can still reach base, just not by way of the hit and is being patient in the batter's box. I think any team would be open to having that player on the team.
Relative to his contemporaries, Votto again proves that his eyes are his most valuable asset as a hitter. Amongst offensive players in the 2010's with a minimum of 3,500 plate appearances, he had the highest BB% rate in baseball (17.0%).
At 36 years young, Votto still has the best pitch recognition skills in the game, and his Batting Eye is second to none.
Bat Speed: Jose Abreu
When we talk bat speed, we are talking about the physics of hitting that result in a ball being hit off the bat with a high exit velocity. Basically, if a majority of pitches are hit hard on a consistent basis, the hitter's bat speed will be high. While we cannot measure bat speed directly, we focus on the exit velocities of Batted Ball Events (BBE). Enter Jose Abreu.
Amongst hitters with at least 450 BBE in 2019, Abreu ranked favorably in several Exit Velocity categories, as shown in the table below:
Abreu is in the top-five in each category, generating velocities on a myriad of BBE's. What is most impressive is his exit velocity generated on FB/LD (96.1 mph), as the key to creating more home runs is to create a high number of fly balls. As he hit 33 homers in 2019, Abreu is the model of consistency, showing "pop off the bat" and is our choice for the skill of Bat Speed.
Durability: Adam Jones
When we talk durability, we refer to players who are not missing games, accumulating plate appearances, and being relatively productive with their chances. Deeper digging shows that Adam Jones is the most durable hitters in Major League Baseball. A five-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glover, Jones' career defines the term "staying power," as he has been present and productive, specifically in the last decade:
Out of a possible 1,620 games, Jones has played in 92.5% of them. His mark of 1,499 games played in the 2010's ranks 1st in the decade. Furthermore, his wOBA (0.334) and wRC+ (108) in that same timeframe signals his consistency as an offensive player. While it may be surprising to some, Adam Jones is our choice for player Durability.
Power Hitting: Mike Trout
Now I know what you might be thinking: "Mike Trout is the best player in the game, isn't he already the perfect hitter?" If that is the case, then this exercise is irrelevant. With that said, Mike Trout is the definitive power hitter in the game, which is reflected in his raw power metrics and his ability to create quality contact on pitches:
In accordance with the table above, Trout's Isolated Power (ISO), a measure of pure power-hitting ability, is a whopping 0.353. For reference, any hitter with an ISO above 0.140 is elite. Trout's ISO is more than 2.5 times that. He also ranks favorably in Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG), which measures quality of contact on batted balls that turn into extra base hits. With an xSLG of 0.669, that ranks in the top 1% in the sport.
While one could argue that Mike Trout could be selected for all these categories, there are hitters that rank above him, except for power. He is our choice for the Power Hitting component.
Swing Mechanics: Ken Griffey Jr.
We can name several players throughout MLB lore that had swing mechanics that we as fans had the privilege to admire. In the case of Ken Griffey Jr., he is considered to have one of the most mechanically sound swings in the history of the game.
As the advanced metrics and player development methods were not developed at the peak of his career, we refer to scouting evaluations that are focused on Griffey Jr.'s swing. A June 1987 scouting report from Steve Vrablik, gives high marks to his mechanics, citing that he "Will drop his hands with a slight hitch and a tendency to uppercut. Quick stroke with good bat speed and outstanding power potential." Looking back, it is safe to say that Vrablik's evaluation of Griffey Jr.'s swing is accurate, as he accumulated 630 home runs and Hall of Fame status. When seeking the perfect player for the category of Swing Mechanics, Ken Griffey Jr. is our choice.
Conclusion:
After extensive research and analysis, The Launch Angle has constructed the perfect hitter. By using metrics, player development data, and scouting evaluations we have built an offensive player that has the Batting Eyes of Joey Votto, the Bat Speed of Jose Abreu, the Durability of Adam Jones, the Power Hitting of Mike Trout, and the Swing Mechanics of Ken Griffey Jr.
Comments