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Now, let's talk curveballs.
The fascination with this pitch type is the spin that can be generated from using it. The more spin a hurler can create, the more effective it can be. For example, Mets pitcher Seth Lugo generated the highest curveball spin amongst pitchers who threw at least 1,000 pitches and at least 100 curveballs in 2019 (3,285 rpm).
So are we going to talk about curveball spin and its effectiveness? You betcha we are!
We are going to look at this pitch through the lens of wOBA to determine if increased curveball spin can be attributed to lower wOBA's from opposing batters. There are a few things to note before diving into the analysis.
We are using wOBA, as it measures how a player reached base and weights each outcome accordingly. It is an all encompassing metric in this sense and is widely accepted and used across all levels of baseball. We are also focusing on wOBA that is allowed from curveballs. For example a pitcher's wOBA allowed for the season may differ from their wOBA allowed on this pitch. For our sample, we are looking at pitchers who, like Lugo, threw at least 1,000 pitches and at least 100 curveballs in 2019. This amounts to a sample of 168 qualified arms.
We will employ a regression analysis and correlate wOBA allowed on curveballs with curveball spin rates to draw any discernible correlation and conclusion.
Now that we have set the table, let's eat.
The Analysis
There are some interesting takeaways from this study, as shown in Figure One below:
The first being the lack of a correlation. With an r-squared of 0.0288, one might have thought differently and believe that curveball spin rates would be effective in preventing a high wOBA. We can safely conclude that there are definitively other factors in designing curveballs that prevent hitters from reaching base in a myriad of ways.
The second fascinating result is that curveball spin rate and wOBA allowed on curveballs is negatively correlated. While the r-squared was not statistically significant, it appears that there is a trend between increased spin rate and lower wOBA's on this selection, all be it a very small one.
Conclusion
When designing an effective curveball, pitchers should not fixate on building it with the sole purpose of preventing batters from reaching base in different ways. Instead, work on increasing the curveball spin in order to induce more grounders, strikeouts, or other favorable outcomes.
Thank you so much for choosing The Launch Angle for some out-of-the-box baseball analysis! If you liked this post, click on this link for our previous article.
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