Here's a fun fact: Rhys Hoskins saw the most breaking pitches in 2019 (1,029). Against those pitches, his quality of contact was below-average, as his xwOBA was 0.150.
Our main focus this morning is to provide hitters a blueprint on how to generate higher levels of quality contact on breaking pitches (sliders, curveballs, etc.). This will be done through two methods.
The first is through regression analysis, which will allow us to determine which variable(s) determine contact. The dependent variable we have chosen is xwOBA, as wOBA itself weighs on-base outcomes differently and xwOBA incorporates the contact component. This metric will be tested against launch speed and launch angle. The sample consists of players who saw at least 500 breaking pitches in 2019, which was approximately 165 hitters.
The second method will involve breaking down the approaches of the three players who posted the highest xwOBA marks in baseball against breaking pitches in 2019. This list includes Josh Bell, Mike Trout and Ronald Acuna Jr.
As you are drinking your morning coffee, we hope that this will provide clarity into how we can better a hitter's approach towards a breaking ball.
Regression Analysis
While some might be hesitant of using data, it will allow us to draw some conclusions on which variables matter more when drawing quality contact on breaking balls. In reference to Figure One below, we start with launch angle:
Notice on the upper-right corner of the regression is the r-squared value, which measures the variance of the data. In short, it evaluates how much the dependent variable (xwOBA) correlates to the independent variable. If the value is between 0.30 and 0.60, there is some statistical significance.
In this context, with an r-squared value of 0.0541, there is very little correlation between launch angle and a hitter's xwOBA, meaning that it has almost no impact. An offensive player can change their swing in order to hit a breaking pitch in any way they see fit, but a higher quality of contact will not occur. Their focus should not be to generate home runs from these pitch types.
Let's pivot to Figure Two and focus on exit velocity. With an r-squared of 0.3517, we can come to a conclusion that the speed that a breaking ball has coming off the bat will increase a hitter's quality of contact, relative to xwOBA. If a player identifies a breaking pitch being thrown, just hit the heck out of it and don't worry about turning it into a moonshot. If a position player can draw contact on breaking pitches consistently, they will eventually fall into play.
Approach Analysis
Josh Bell, Mike Trout and Ronald Acuna Jr. had the highest xwOBA amongst hitters who saw at least 500 breaking pitches in 2019. To complement the data analysis above, we focus on each player's approach to these pitch types.
Specifically, we highlight their respective xwOBA on certain pitch counts. These counts include being ahead in the count, even counts, behind in counts, two strike counts, and counts with three balls. We reference Figure Three below for the breakdowns.
Based on the data above from these elite hitters, players should look to be ahead in counts, be in even counts, or draw three outside offerings in order to maximize their contact quality, in the context of xwOBA. They should avoid counts where they are behind or have two strikes.
A hitter's approach when facing breaking pitches is to be patient, but also be ahead in counts in order to get the green light to swing away. There is no need to swing at these pitch types repeatedly, as they are likely to drift out of the strike zone. Now that we have an outline of an approach, let's bring it together.
Conclusion
Based on the analyses above, we can conclude that a hitter can draw higher quality of contact on breaking pitches by focusing on hitting these offerings harder, instead of turning them into fly balls and increasing home run probability. Offensive players should also be patient in the box and not swing at breaking stuff aimlessly without any proper strategy. Only when they are ahead in counts should they choose to take massive cuts.
Thank you so much for choosing The Launch Angle for some out-of-the-box baseball analysis! If you enjoyed reading this post, click this link for our previous article!
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