That's right, I'm a Tampa Bay believer.
The Rays franchise has only made the postseason five times in its 23 year history, with a World Series berth in 2008. If one is playing the probability, the odds are not overwhelming. However, the organization has taken tremendous strides last year and this offseason to maximize success.
They do not have the financial resources that a New York or Los Angeles possess, but they have the deepest team in baseball, both in their big league roster and their farm system. They have also taken steps in identifying and acquiring players that will add a different dimension to their offense to complement their already dominant pitching staff.
For me, there are three key reasons why the Tampa Bay Rays will be the American League representative in the Fall Classic and will ultimately take home the Commissioner's Trophy in October.
1. Outfield Defense & Power
While Tampa Bay did not commit significant sums of financial capital to free agents this winter, they made changes to bolster their outfield defense and power in the lineup. Starting with the former, they traded for Manuel Margot, who is not a premium offensive player, but is a tremendous defensive outfielder.
In 2019, he ranked 6th in Outs Above Average (+12) and covered the 2nd most distance in the outfield (36.5 feet). When paired with Kevin Kiermaier, who is one of the best defenders in the game, Tampa Bay's defense will be the best in the Majors in this category.
Aside from defense, the Rays added power in Hunter Renfroe to enhance their power capabilities. Having hit 33 homers in 2019 and has hit a moonshot in 22.8% of his career games played, the franchise wanted to complement existing dynamic players in Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe amongst others who are highly-skilled hitters. Tampa's acquisitions have provided a stronger defense and a more powerful lineup, which will be favorable in a 60-game schedule and in postseason play.
2. Dynamic Pitching Staff
While Tampa invented the "Opener," which employs relievers as quasi-starters to "open" games by pitching limited innings before introducing the formal starter, this team has a very deep pitching core.
Now that we are in the era of launch angles and home runs, teams are searching for hurlers that can prevent them. Tampa's pitching staff ranked 1st in the Majors last season in HR/9 (1.10) and allowed the fewest homers with 181. Assuming health, this rotation might be the best in baseball in preventing the long ball, which allows their offense to score without getting into tight contests.
Also, a starting rotation that is headlined by Blake Snell (a Cy Young winner), Charlie Morton (the league's spin rate king) and Tyler Glasnow (hyper-talented prospect) coupled with a deep, multifaceted relief core, is a complete one and is capable of containing any explosive offense.
3. Farm System
Now that rosters are expanding as part of the new rule changes for the 2020 season, this allows teams with highly rated farm systems to add that talent to its existing roster. I had written an article after the league announced the five round format for last month's draft explaining five takeaways from that change (if you're interested, click on this link for that breakdown).
My final point in that post is that farm systems will determine the teams in the World Series. As of this writing, the general consensus is that Tampa Bay has the most adept farm system. It was announced that the team will add top prospect Wander Franco to their expanded player pool along with a number of other talented, high-ceiling prospects.
When you already have a deep roster with skilled players at nearly every position, and you add more depth that fit that mold, it becomes a roster that turns into a juggernaut and can win in a myriad of ways. Aside from Franco, the organization is going to rely on the talents of two-way player Brendan McKay, Shane Baz and Vidal Brujan to name a few in order to provide versatile options for Kevin Cash and the coaching staff.
For me, the deepest, talented organizations always succeed. In the context of a condensed season, this is especially true. With Tampa Bay's farm system, it provides with a sizable premium over most clubs in their championship aspirations.
Conclusion
Tampa Bay went the distance is last year's ALDS against Houston and I would argue that they could have won that series if a couple of aspects were different. In a 60-game sprint, with a talented roster, any team can start to generate momentum and be successful. With that said, I believe that the Tampa Bay Rays will win their first championship in franchise history this season.
Thank you so much for choosing The Launch Angle for some out-of-the-box baseball analysis! If you liked this post, click on this link for our previous article.
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