Thank you so much to our fans who continually support and follow The Launch Angle and read our content! In case you missed it, you can read our previous article by clicking this link. Now let's talk Shohei Ohtani.
Interesting thought experiment, right?
There has been a myriad of talented players throughout Major League history that fans considered to be the greatest in the entirety of the sport. What sparked the inspiration for this article is when former Yankees great CC Sabathia, co-host of the R2C2 is UNINTERRUPTED podcast with Ryan Ruocco, said that Ohtani is the best baseball player he has ever seen in his life.
While some took this as wild exaggeration, I found it to be an interesting analysis. The Angels two-way player has only been in the big leagues for two seasons and does not have the volume metrics or accolades that everyone looks for when making the "Greatest of All-Time" argument. What Sabathia was referring to is the skill and natural ability that the former 2018 Rookie of the Year winner possesses. He elaborates further, stating that Ohtani is the only player that he has ever seen that can hit the ball 900 feet and throw 99 mph on the mound.
So, this got my gears turning and I started to think of players, both past and present, that had both the natural hitting and pitching abilities that Ohtani has and was dominant in both areas. Babe Ruth comes to mind, but that’s about it. This leads us to our hypothesis: "Is Shohei Ohtani the Greatest Baseball Player we have ever seen?" To answer this question, we focus on two main areas of his game from a data perspective: hitting and pitching.
Ohtani's Hitting:
One of Shohei Ohtani's strengths as a hitter is generating quality contact, which is more indicative of a player's offensive skillset. In his 2018 campaign, he either ranked in the top 3% to 6% of the league in xSLG (0.545), xwOBA (0.383), and xwOBAcon (0.506). While these numbers were down in 2019, Ohtani had a slightly better exit velocity on his hits at 92.8 mph, relative to 2018 (92.6 mph).
Along the same lines of both Sabathia's claim and Ohtani's exit velocities, any ball that an opposing pitcher threw to him was effectively crushed. As a left-handed hitter, any pitch that was thrown middle-up, middle, or middle-away, was going to leave Ohtani's bat with amazing speed, as depicted in Figure One below (thank you Statcast for the assist):
The fact that Ohtani's exit velocities are all mid-90's or higher is staggering, with his highest being 100.4 mph in the upper-middle of the zone. Amongst hitters with at least 250 BBE's in 2019, Ohtani was tied for 5th in average exit velocity (92.8 mph) and had an average home run distance of 406 feet. Ohtani's numbers in this context prove what Sabathia saw with his own eyes: that he can absolutely crush the baseball with a supreme amount of velocity and distance. Now let's pivot to pitching.
Ohtani's Pitching:
Unfortunately, Ohtani did not have a chance to pitch in the 2019 season due to a Tommy John injury. With that in mind, he posted terrific pitching numbers in his rookie season of 2018. I mentioned above that Ohtani is a left-handed hitter. He is also a right-handed hurler, which in it of itself is fascinating.
Featuring four pitches in his pitch arsenal (4-Seamer, Slider, Split Finger, Curveball), Ohtani was highly effective with his fastball in the context of both velocity and amongst his peers. Averaging 96.7 mph on his fastball and finishing in the 94th percentile in this area. Aside from his power pitch, his secondary pitches were also highly effective. Having thrown 266 breaking pitches in 2018, opposing batters struggled, posting an xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA of 0.134, 0.251, and 0.206 respectfully against pitches that had an average spin rate of 2,328 rpm.
So, let's review: part of Sabathia's claim is that Ohtani can hop on the mound and throw 99 mph. With an average fastball velocity of 96.7 mph, I would say that's accurate. Another element that I would add on top of his thesis is Ohtani's ability to generate spin on his secondary pitches and be effective with them.
Prediction:
Overall, I believe CC Sabathia's assessment of Shohei Ohtani as being the greatest baseball player he has ever seen is accurate and was not hyperbole. I believe that with time and usage, he will accumulate the hitting and pitching numbers needed to be considered the greatest ball player to ever live. Let me take it one step further.
In the history of baseball, there have been 10 pitchers who have won a Cy Young and MVP award in the same season (Don Newcombe, Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, Vida Blue, Rollie Fingers, Willie Hernandez, Roger Clemens, Dennis Eckersley, Justin Verlander, and Clayton Kershaw). I predict that Shohei Ohtani will become the eleventh member of this club and will accomplish this feat at least twice in his career. This will make him the first two-way player to win a Cy Young and MVP honors in MLB history.
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