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Who wants to make their breaking pitch better this morning? All hands should go up.
Today, we focus on how to increase swings and misses on changeups thrown by starting pitchers. Specifically, we focus on vertical and horizontal movement. In order to quantify these outcomes, we turn to Whiff%, which is offered by Statcast as a metric that encapsulates the rate at which batters swing through changeup offerings.
Through regression analysis, we look for a discernable correlation between Whiff% and movement.
Before we dive in, we want to define two things. First, our sample consists of pitchers who pitched at least 70 innings as a starter and threw at least 100 changeups. This amounts to 115 qualified hurlers. Second, when we talk correlation, we are referencing representable r-squared values. If this number is in the range of 0.30 and 0.60, we can, in some capacity, draw a correlation that movement on changeups impacts swings and misses.
Now that we have set the table, let's dive in.
Vertical Movement
When talking about vertical movement on any pitch, we are focusing on inches of vertical drop. In the context of the changeup, we determine if this type of movement has any bearing on Whiff%. We reference Figure One below for the analysis:
As one can see, swings and misses on changeups have very little correlation to vertical movement on this pitch type, as represented by an r-squared of 0.0163. In other words, if a starter is looking to induce more swings and misses on their changeup, vertical movement should not be the focal point.
Horizontal Movement
We now turn to horizontal movement to see if side-to-side movement create swings misses on changeups. When discussing this variable, we are focusing on inches of horizontal break. Figure Two provides us with a breakdown:
With an r-squared of 0.0011, we can conclude that horizontal break on this pitch type has even less correlation to swings and misses, represented by Whiff%. If a starter is looking to add a more deceptive breaking pitch, they should not focus on its horizontal motion towards the plate.
Conclusion
Even I'm surprised by the results. Changeup movement, whether it is vertical drop or horizontal break, has very little impact on inducing swings and misses. When a starter is looking to design this pitch type to add to their arsenal, movement should not be the centerpiece, as other variables are more critical.
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