Seems like a bold claim, right? If one read the title, they might challenge this notion, asking "But the franchise hasn't made the postseason in 16 years, and only twice in 27 years of existence. What's your evidence?"
While I readily admit that this is a huge leap of faith on my part, if we take a closer look at what the Marlins have been building towards since Derek Jeter and the new ownership group purchased the team, we recognize that it is unique. Here are three reasons why the Miami Marlins will make the postseason in 2020:
1. Farm System
Let's start with the farm system, which has a plethora of tremendously talented, blue-chip prospects:
Sandy Alcantara (SP): An All-Star in 2019, Alcantara looks to build upon positive developments heading into 2020. Acquired in a trade with St. Louis in 2017, Alcantara was a highly coveted prospect in the Marlins farm system, featuring a fastball that resonated with evaluators. According to MLB Pipeline, scouts graded Alcantara's fastball at a 70, which on the scouting scale of 20-80, is an above average grade. They also cite that his velocity on this pitch has increased in the last two years and can consistently hit triple digits with late movement.
Alcantara's numbers on this pitch match that of the scouts' evaluation, as he finished in the 84th and 75th percentiles in fastball velocity and fastball spin respectfully. Opposing batters also struggled mightily on this pitch, posting an xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA of 0.241, 0.449, and 0.335 respectfully in 2019. By these measures, hitters could not attain a productive level of quality contact against Alcantara's fastball highly graded fastball.
Brian Anderson (INF/OF): Coming off a strong showing in 2019, which included 20 home runs and an OPS of 0.811 in 126 games, Anderson continues to solidify himself as a key component to the Marlins future success. What is most undervalued about his game is his defense in the field. As he was in the Marlins farm system in 2016, evaluators noted his defense, as those on MLB Pipeline touted his defensive versatility, and that his best fit would be in the infield with his strong arm, which received a scouting grade of 60.
Playing 67 games at third base and 55 games in right field, Anderson was highly effective defensively at both spots. At third, he compiled a DRS of +8, along with a UZR of 4.2 in 586.2 innings played at the position. Anderson also posted reputable numbers in right field as well, with a DRS and UZR of +5 and 2.2 respectfully. Entering his fourth season in 2020, Anderson provides a strong offensive presence in the lineup, and defensive adaptability on defense.
Isan Diaz (2B): Coming to Miami from Milwaukee in the Christian Yelich trade in 2018, Diaz made his Marlins debut in 2019, which included hitting his first Major League home run off NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. While he only played in 49 games last season, Diaz is one of the most anticipated prospects to come out of the franchise's player development ranks. While with the team's AAA affiliate in New Orleans, he posted in OPS of 0.973 along with 26 home runs.
League scouts and evaluators think highly of Diaz, as his scouting report on MLB Pipeline reflects high marks in several categories, including power (55) and arm (55). Citing the analysis on MLB Pipeline, he stands out because of his plus raw power to all fields of play, displaying tremendous bat speed and a crisp upper cut swing that connects the barrel of the bat to the ball on a consistent basis. With this evaluation in mind, Diaz will take a quantum leap in 2020, and become a focal point for the team's offensive production.
2. Veteran Free Agent Signings
Corey Dickerson (OF): Signing a 2-year, $17.5 million contract in the offseason, Dickerson is coming off a 2019 in which he played only 78 games with Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. The Marlins are hoping that he will provide strong depth in a developing outfield and replicate his productive 2017 season, where he garnered in All-Star selection. That season, Dickerson hit 27 home runs, to go along with an ISO of 0.207 and a wRC+ of 116. He was also highly effective against offspeed pitches that season, posting an xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA of 0.294, 0.489, and 0.365 respectfully.
Matt Joyce (OF): A 12-year veteran that spans playing time with six different franchises, Joyce also provides some leadership to the Marlins outfield unit. While with Atlanta in 2019, Joyce was highly effective offensively, specifically from an advanced analytics perspective, posting a walk rate of 16.0%, a wOBA of 0.372, and a wRC+ of 128. He also displayed raw power as well, reflected in an ISO of 0.155.
Francisco Cervelli (C): Entering his age 34 season, Cervelli provides more leadership and depth to the Marlins offensive player group. While his offensive numbers declined in 2019, his defense was still relatively solid behind the dish, posting a DRS of +3 and a RF/9 of 9.73.
3. NL East Uncertainty
We fully acknowledge the uncertainly of when the 2020 MLB season will commence, but assuming that it does, there are some questions for each squad in the NL East. As the Nationals look to defend their World Series title, they will look to Trea Turner to make up the offensive output lost from Anthony Rendon leaving in free agency. While they signed Will Harris and Daniel Hudson to be key bullpen pieces, there is still some uncertainty in that area.
For the Mets, with Noah Syndergaard out for the season (Tommy John surgery), the team's rotation loses a dominant pitcher when healthy, leaving more productivity needed from Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman. Like the Nationals, they Mets also have bullpen questions, as Jeurys Familia and Edwin Diaz struggled mightily last season. While the addition of Dellin Betances provides more talent, he was often injured last year with the Yankees.
With the signing of Zack Wheeler to a $118 million contract, the Phillies have high expectations for their organization, particularly with Bryce Harper entering the second season of a 13-year, $330 million contract. They also will be looking towards Rhys Hopkins and Aaron Nola to have bounce back seasons as well. The fear is that they may not rise to those expectations, based on who they signed coupled with their talented roster.
The Braves have made a strong effort in free agency to add veteran presences in several spots of need, as their signings are headlined by Travis d'Arnaud, Cole Hamels, Marcell Ozuna, and Will Smith. Having been an offensive juggernaut in 2019, they lost a key cog in that production in Josh Donaldson and have questions about taking the next step in the postseason. While Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Freddie Freeman will still be productive for the franchise, it is more of a question of if they can replicate what they did offensively in 2019 coupled with questions of progression.
Conclusion:
The Miami Marlins may have a legitimate chance of making the postseason in 2020. In assessing the factors outlined above, the team may be able to push the other teams in their division and be successful. They are our pick for a sleeper team this season and have a long prosperous future if they continue the path that they are on.
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