There is a reason why Charlie Morton is pictured above.
The power surge in baseball is well-documented, as home runs are being hit left, right and center, both literally and figuratively. Due to this increase in offense, pitchers' statistics and run prevention numbers are inflating.
Today, we breakdown the three pitch mix that is most effective in dispatching moonshots. In order to construct this formula, we look back at data from the 2019 season and determine three key factors:
1. Which zones in the strike zone pitchers should avoid
2. Which three pitch sequence is most effective
3. The average spin rate that each pitch should have
With the rules established, let's start the analysis:
Zones, Zones And More Zones
6,776 was the magic number in the 2019 Major League season, as in the amount of homers that were hit. Of those 6,776, a mere 6,142 of them were hit in the strike zone, which is split into nine sections. We reference the figure below for the distribution, expressed in percentages:
Of home runs hit in the strike zone, sections 4, 5, 6 and 8 had the highest percentages of home runs hit in 2019. Conversely, zones 1, 3, 7 and 9 were the lowest. Based on the data above, we can infer that if pitchers attacked the upper-third of the zone and the bottom two corners consistently, the probability of a home run occurring is minimal.
Even before we dive deeper into the specific pitch mix, if hurlers focus on locating their pitches in these areas, their individual run prevention numbers would be favorable.
The Pitch Mix
Using Home Runs per Nine (HR/9) as the baseline metric we are working with a sample of 61 qualified pitchers (pitched at least 160 innings) who surrendered the fewest blasts over a standard nine inning game. In accordance with the charts below, 67.21% of the pitchers in this sample employ a four-seam fastball as their primary pitch. To provide variety in their second offering, a slider is issued. Where it gets most interesting is the selection for a tertiary pitch.
In reference to Figure Four, 24.59% of hurlers in this sample opt for another slider after throwing a primary fastball and a secondary slider. However, there may be an opportunity for choice, as some in the sample choose a cutter or curveball at 18.03% respectfully. This allows us to hypothesize three sets of three pitch mixes that could be effective in preventing home runs:
First Mix: Four-Seamer, Slider, Slider
Second Mix: Four-Seamer, Slider, Cutter
Third Mix: Four-Seamer, Slider, Curveball
Let's bring it home with spin rates.
Let It Spin
We focus on spin rate in this process because the higher the spin a pitcher can generate, the more deceptive a pitch can be from the viewpoint of an opposing batter. Below are the range of spin rates of each primary, secondary and tertiary pitch:
Based on the sample of pitchers with low home run rates, those who use a four-seam pitch as their primary choice should have a spin rate between 2,016 and 2,650 rpm. For their secondary sliders, the ideal range is from 1,869 to 2,867 rpm.
What is most fascinating is for the tertiary pitch. If a hurler chooses a slider, they should look to generate a spin rate between 1,837 and 2,868 rpm. If they prefer a cutter, they should seek to create between 2,065 and 2,713 levels of spin. Finally, if they select a curveball for their third pitch, the rates should be in the range of 2,045 to 2,901 rpm.
Conclusion
We can formally offer a variety of three pitch mixes and the location in which each pitch should be thrown in with the goal of preventing home runs.
Pitchers should focus on attacking the upper-third of the zone along with the lower two corners, also known as zones 1, 2, 3, 7 and 9. Pitchers should use a combination of a four-seamer and two consecutive sliders in that order. They could also turn to a sequence of a four-seamer, slider, and cutter or a four-seamer, slider and curveball.
For each pitch in each suggested option, the spin rates should vary to increase deception.
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